Erdogan's Peace Proposal at G20 Faces Skepticism, While Russia Rejects "Frozen Conflict" Option

At the upcoming G20 summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will present a bold plan aimed at freezing the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, proposing a strategy that would create a demilitarized zone in the contested eastern Donbas region. The plan, which according to him “seeks to reduce the bloodshed while addressing key geopolitical concerns”, suggests stationing international troops in the area as a security guarantee for both sides.

The proposal also includes a significant and quite unacceptable concession from Ukraine: the postponement of any discussions about NATO membership for at least 10 years. In return for this diplomatic pause, Ukraine would continue to receive military aid, ensuring its defense capabilities are kept while staying out of the Western alliance for the time being.

Despite the ambitious nature of Erdogan's plan, Turkish officials have acknowledged the difficulty in persuading Ukraine to accept such terms. They argue, however, that this "realistic approach" may be the best available option to secure a long-term ceasefire and halt the ongoing conflict. According to Bloomberg, Turkish diplomats suggest that the focus should now shift to maintaining a stable truce, with discussions on the fate of the occupied territories postponed for the future.

However, Russia has firmly rejected the idea of freezing the conflict along the existing battle lines. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed the proposal, describing it as unacceptable for Moscow. "Freezing the war along the battle line would not be a solution for Russia," Peskov stated, reiterating the Kremlin's stance that the conflict's resolution requires Ukraine to abandon its NATO aspirations and recognize Russia's territorial claims in the region.

Furthermore, Peskov warned of escalating tensions should Ukraine continue to strike deep into Russian territory with Western-supplied weapons. He framed such actions as an "escalation" that would only prolong the conflict, further complicating any path to peace.

In the midst of these diplomatic tensions, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has defended his call for direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In a statement, Scholz emphasized the importance of maintaining support for Ukraine while underscoring that any resolution must involve Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

"Ukraine can rely on us," Scholz asserted, affirming Europe's commitment to Kyiv. He also acknowledged the bleak outlook from his conversation with Putin, stating, "The conversation was very detailed but also contributed to the realization that little has changed in the Russian president’s views – and that is not good news."

Scholz continued, emphasizing that peace can only be achieved if President Putin is willing to abandon his imperial ambitions and withdraw his forces from Ukraine. "It is important to be clear that the basic principle applies: there will be no decisions taken over the heads of Ukraine," he added.

It was previously confirmed that President Biden has allowed Ukraine to strike inside Russia, with some reports suggesting that this only applies to the Kursk region, which Ukraine targeted in the recent “incursion.”

I would like to note that freezing the conflict would create a demilitarized zone stretching over 800 km inside Ukrainian territory, effectively leaving cities like Kharkiv, which are of major strategic interest to Putin, without protection. Furthermore, the “no conflict, no aid” approach would likely become the next stance of pro-Russian governments once the conflict is frozen. Meanwhile, Russia is receiving military support from North Korea, as well as direct shipments from China, and is also set to sign a military collaboration agreement with Iran during its president’s visit to Moscow later this year.

Over the weekend, Ukraine experienced one of the most severe attacks on its electrical grid and civilian infrastructure, a clear indication of Putin’s disinterest in negotiation. These brutal attacks only reaffirm the Kremlin's unwillingness to engage in meaningful peace talks.

These so-called “peace plans” by Putin’s allies are simply unacceptable if the EU is to prevent an expanded war and effectively protect Ukraine’s sovereignty—and its own.